Despite today’s heightened risk environment, our Risk & Resilience research1 reveals global business leaders’ concerns around supply chain instability continue to decline since a peak of 31% in 2021[i], with just 18% regarding this risk as their leading business concern.
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However, while concern has dropped, a quarter of the executives surveyed feel their business is unprepared[ii] for supply chain instability and disruption. In addition, 23% of the firms surveyed planned to increase the agility of their supply chain this year, but this is a significant decline since 2023[iii] where 35% of business leaders planned to do this. Begging the question is supply chain a potential blind spot for businesses?
Concerns over supply chain vary by region
Our data has uncovered that UK executives feel the most exposed to supply chain risk compared to their global counterparts, with over a fifth (22%) citing it as the biggest threat they face this year. While global executives face several common challenges relating to supply chains, the ongoing fallout from the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, particularly around delays experienced at border checks, has left UK businesses uniquely exposed.
When making their predictions for 2025, UK executives placed a similar amount of emphasis on supply chain risk, suggesting that this is a sustained risk for UK businesses. It is also interesting to note the rise in concern around this risk next year, with executives in North America, France and Germany predicting an increase.
Industry views vary about supply chain risk
Turning our attention to sector splits, the data shows that healthcare and life sciences firms are feeling particularly exposed to supply chain risk. While just 14% of global executives in these industries cited supply chain risk as their greatest threat this year, the percentage is set to rise to over a fifth (22%) in 2025. In contrast to some other industries, such as manufacturing, see executives expecting to place less emphasis on supply chain risk in 2025.
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‘Black swan’ events
So called ‘black swan’ events, such as the Baltimore Bridge collapse, can cause a severe and unexpected impact for many businesses. The impact of this tragic accident resulted in the 4,000 commercial trucks that used the bridge each day being rerouted2, leading to supply chain issues, increased delivery times and costs for many businesses.3
The unpredictability of ‘black swan’ events, whether a result of accidents, geopolitical issues or conflict, cyber-attack or extreme weather, expose gaps in supply chain risk management and scenario planning.
Global reliance on marine cargo
Over 80% of the world’s goods are transported by sea, and the volume of sea freight more than doubled between the 1990 and 2021.4 Highlighting the importance of marine cargo to world trade.
As global freight volumes rise, port congestion and pressure on warehousing facilities also increase. The resulting delays in port entries and exits put further strain on warehouse supply, and leads to route diversions and changes to standard port operations. This chain of events will impact supply chains and potentially result in inventory shortages and higher costs due to delivery delays and increased freight costs.
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“Whether cargo ships are rerouted due to a port closure, cyber-attack, piracy, war or extreme weather the resultant outcomes are the same, disruption delays and logistics challenges. Businesses need to have systems and insurance in place to respond to and minimise disruption, bottom-line impact and service to the end-consumer as far as possible.”
Kelly Malynn
Maritime Cyber Physical Damage Product Leader
Geopolitical impact on supply chains
With rising geopolitical risk, firms should be considering their reliance on their suppliers and supply chains, particularly as the risks of new conflicts, trade embargoes, sanctions and tariffs increase.
Since the pandemic, many firms have looked to build agility into their supply chains, by moving them closer to home. Known as nearshoring or onshoring, many businesses are minimising the distance between their raw materials, or the products they sell, to their main operations. However, bringing manufacturing closer to home requires significant investment leaving many smaller firms reliant on cheaper goods primarily manufactured in the Asian market, leaving them potentially more exposed to supply chain instability risk.